Iraq’s security unravels as U.S. exit weakens defenses
U.S. troops withdrew from Iraq in September, but the departure has created a significant intelligence and military support void that threatens the country’s security. The final removal of coalition forces ended aerial surveillance, drone monitoring, and air defense coverage for Kurdish regions. Kurdish military leaders state they no longer receive logistical aid or real-time intelligence on militia activity, increasing their exposure to Iranian-backed groups still operating in Iraq.
The U.S. withdrawal was finalized under President Biden’s 2024 agreement, which assumed Iraqi forces could manage the remaining ISIS threat while Washington transitioned to bilateral training and intelligence sharing. However, the security situation has deteriorated since then. Iran-aligned militias remain active, and the U.S. conflict with Iran has further destabilized Iraq.
Militia delays deepen Iraq’s security crisis
A central aspect of the withdrawal deal required militia demobilization, with Baghdad originally setting a September 30, 2024, deadline for bringing armed factions under state control. That deadline has now been extended to June 30, 2027. Some factions are seeking even longer delays, while discussions include proposals to integrate militia members into state security forces. This approach risks embedding armed networks within government institutions rather than dismantling them.
Regional tensions have intensified elsewhere in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia reported a Houthi drone attack on Medina last week, following Riyadh’s earlier accusation that the group targeted Mecca two weeks prior. Investigators attribute the strike to the Houthis, though the group denies responsibility. Saudi forces have also intercepted missiles and drones over southern regions, after earlier strikes on oil infrastructure and the East-West pipeline.
AI becomes lifeline for oil amid attacks
The Iran conflict is reshaping energy operations beyond Iraq. Abu Dhabi’s AIQ, an ADNOC subsidiary, has accelerated deployment of its AI-driven systems after six months of disrupted shipping and regional attacks. What was once considered optional technology is now essential for real-time monitoring of drilling, production, and facility management. AIQ’s Genesis operating system—designed to coordinate AI agents across oil and gas operations—is being tested in Kuwait, India, Malaysia, and Vietnam. A pilot in Egypt successfully predicted a pump failure 45 days in advance.
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Syria faces its own energy crisis after an explosion on the gas pipeline between Al-Shoula and Deir ez-Zor disrupted supplies from the Al-Jabsah processing plant. This marks the second attack on the system since August. Syrian authorities blame sabotage, while a local oil official told The National the explosion may have been an attempted gas theft gone wrong. Either way, Syria’s domestic gas production has dropped to 8.5 million cubic meters per day, down from 30 million before the war, leaving the country producing less than a third of its needs. The attack undermines Damascus’ efforts to rebuild its energy sector after signing a June deal with ConocoPhillips to develop domestic gas fields.
Kurdish defenses crumble without U.S. support
Kurdish forces in Erbil have lost a key defense against Iranian missile and drone strikes. The withdrawal of U.S. air defenses removed a critical shield, leaving Kurdish commanders to rely on their own short-range systems, which offer limited protection against large-scale attacks.
Baghdad’s failure to enforce militia demobilization has exposed deeper divisions within Iraq’s security forces. The original September 2024 deadline was tied to a broader political agreement that included the U.S. troop withdrawal.
Syria’s energy crisis has worsened following the second attack on the Al-Jabsah pipeline system, which supplies power stations nationwide. The explosion on the Al-Shoula-Deir ez-Zor line cut off fuel from the Al-Jabsah processing plant, further straining Syria’s already fragile energy grid. Authorities attribute the incident to sabotage, though a local oil official suggests it may have stemmed from a botched gas theft. Syria’s domestic gas production has collapsed to 8.5 million cubic meters daily, less than a third of pre-war levels, while demand remains at 22 to 25 million cubic meters per day. The country now depends on imports and emergency rationing.
Europe’s oil reserves face urgent demand
Pressure is mounting on European nations to release more oil from strategic reserves after the U.S. exhausted its share of the 400 million-barrel IEA emergency draw. Washington has urged Germany and France to accelerate diesel stock releases, warning of potential export restrictions if commitments are not met. Germany has released only 23% of its 15 million-barrel pledge, while France says its strategic stocks remain full. The IEA reports that roughly a third of the original 400 million barrels still remain in storage, with European governments set to discuss further releases at a meeting scheduled for Friday.
