U.S. diesel export ban could worsen fuel costs
Analysts at Morgan Stanley warned in a report shared by Bloomberg that gasoline prices would spike further if the Trump Administration bans diesel exports. They explained that a ban would force refiners to cut refinery utilization rates because they would run out of storage for the diesel within just a few weeks. Reduced refinery utilization would also crimp gasoline production, since the fuels are produced together. As a result, U.S. gasoline prices would spike further, from already record-high levels for this time of year.
Current data from AAA show the national average price for regular gasoline reached $4.47 per gallon on September 23, up from $4.10 a month earlier and significantly higher than the $3.17 average recorded one year prior. Meanwhile, diesel prices have climbed to $6.52 per gallon, more than double the $3.69 level seen in the same week of 2025. These increases place additional financial strain on drivers, farmers, and commercial trucking operations, which rely heavily on affordable fuel. Rural economies, in particular, face higher operational costs for machinery and transportation.
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Industry groups, including energy and manufacturing associations, have strongly opposed the proposal. Chris Wright, the former oil executive now serving as Energy Secretary, dismissed the idea, stating, “The blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn’t work.” Over 30 trade organizations signed a joint letter on Wednesday urging the president to reject the ban, arguing it would lead to less fuel production, tighter supplies, and rising costs for American families, farmers, and truckers.
