Global Trade and FDI Trends Shift
Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 8.02 percent in 2025, marking a period of strong economic momentum despite difficult global conditions and natural disaster impacts. The General Statistics Office estimates the country’s nominal GDP reached nearly VND 12.85 quadrillion, which converts to approximately US$514 billion. This figure represents an increase of about US$38 billion from the previous year. Per capita income also rose to roughly US$5,026 as output growth remained broad-based across major sectors.
Manufacturing and Services Drive Growth
Industry and construction led the expansion, growing by 8.95 percent. Services contributed more than half of total economic output and served as the primary driver of growth. Inflation remained within the National Assembly’s policy targets, with consumer prices increasing by 3.31 percent. Housing-related costs, food services, healthcare, and education were the main contributors to price increases. These pressures were partially offset by declines in transport prices and deflation in information and communications products. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items like food and energy, averaged 3.21 percent.
The resilience of the manufacturing sector is evident in foreign direct investment trends. Newly registered FDI exceeded US$38.4 billion, edging up 0.5 percent year on year. Disbursed capital reached an estimated US$27.6 billion, the highest level in five years and a strong 9 percent increase. Investment activity shifted toward smaller but more numerous projects. Vietnam approved 4,054 new FDI projects, a 20.1 percent increase in count, even as total newly registered capital declined by 12.2 percent to US$17.3 billion.
Related: Vietnam updates tax rules for businesses
Manufacturing and processing accounted for more than half of registered capital, with real estate and other sectors following closely. Capital expansion by existing investors reinforced this focus, with adjusted capital totaling US$14.1 billion. Foreign investors were also active through equity participation, with capital contributions and share purchases exceeding US$7 billion, up nearly 55 percent year on year. Singapore was the largest source of newly licensed capital, followed by China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Sweden.
Trade Surplus and Import Dependence
Vietnam’s external trade expanded strongly in 2025, with total turnover exceeding US$930 billion. This figure represents an 18.2 percent year-on-year increase and a trade surplus of approximately US$20 billion. A clear structural divide exists between domestic and foreign-invested enterprises. The domestic sector posted a trade deficit of US$29.4 billion, while the foreign-invested sector generated a surplus of nearly US$49.5 billion. The foreign sector’s strong performance illustrates the dominant role of foreign entities in Vietnam’s export-oriented growth model.
Exports reached US$475 billion, up 17 percent from the prior year. Processed industrial products remain the backbone of export performance, contributing nearly 90 percent of total value. Agriculture, forestry, and seafood also contributed steadily, alongside limited fuel and mineral exports. However, imports grew faster than exports, rising 19.4 percent year on year to US$455 billion. The import basket is heavily weighted toward machinery, equipment, spare parts, raw materials, and fuels, which together account for more than 90 percent of total imports. This composition reinforces Vietnam’s dependence on imported intermediate inputs to sustain export competitiveness.
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Trade balances vary significantly across major partners. The United States remained the largest export market, generating a substantial surplus, followed by the European Union. In contrast, Vietnam continues to run large and widening trade deficits with China, South Korea, and ASEAN. These deficits reflect reliance on these markets for intermediate goods and industrial inputs.
Historical Economic Context
For context, the World Bank classifies Vietnam as an upper-middle-income economy. The country has transitioned rapidly from an agrarian society to a manufacturing hub over the past three decades. The economic profile data spanning 1990 to 2020 highlights this transformation. The nation has achieved significant gains in life expectancy, school enrollment, and poverty reduction. While recent years show continued improvement in these social indicators, the current growth model relies heavily on external demand and imported inputs. This pattern suggests that the economy will likely remain sensitive to global trade and supply chain shifts in the coming period.
Investors looking to handle these complex economic conditions may find valuable insights in recent regulatory updates. Vietnam has updated tax rules for businesses to reflect these changing realities [1]. Furthermore, understanding market cycles is essential for those managing property portfolios, particularly regarding liquidity and timing [2].
